Fire OblationTier 2
at CMB DTR Regionals
decks
2
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
6-6-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1331
· range 1199–1463
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1189
Q3 1369
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Fire Suited | 14.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.0 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
